INTERCAM BANCO. OPINIÓN DE LA MESA Divisas

18 de enero de 2022
Comentario de la mesa
Roberto Galván Caballero
rgalvan@intercam.com.mx
─Instagram: robertip_fx_usdmxn
José Curiel
lcuriele@intercam.com.mx
─Versión inglés
Jonatan Tawil
jtawil@intercam.com.mx
Tipo de Cambio Peso/Dólar
Dólar americano
20.3349
Fix Banxico* 20.3002 Promedio móvil 50 días 20.8220 Promedio móvil 200 días 20.2800 Máximo 30 días 21.3637 Hola, buenos días.
Mínimo 30 días 20.2787 El precio amanece sobre niveles de 20.36 con movimientos “overnight” entre
20.2850 y 20.40, aproximadamente, en el Spot.
Datos actualizados a las: 7:36 AM
* Correspondiente al día hábil inmediato anterior a
la fecha de esta publicación.
Fuente: Banxico y Bloomberg.
Hace unos minutos se publicó el dato de manufactura en EE.UU. con un resultado
por demás negativo: -0.7 vs 25 puntos estimados. El impacto en el precio resultó
en una disminución en el precio desde 20.3850 hasta 20.34, dado que indica que
es un ingrediente para ralentizar la normalización. Para el resto de la jornada,
esperamos los flujos netos de capital y reportes anuales de algunos Bancos
importantes destacando a Goldman Sachs. En México, esperamos datos de
Reservas Internacionales y ventas de tiendas departamentales.
Los indicadores más importantes se encuentran favoreciendo a la divisa
norteamericana dado que el DXY se ubica al momento 0.30% por encima del nivel
previo. Los CDS ́s, de igual manera, han subido +0.32 pts. y la volatilidad en
13.2%.
Técnicamente, para el día vemos niveles importantes sobre 20.32 y 20.40 como
inmediatos con extensiones marcadas sobre niveles en 20.28 y 20.46.
Rangos iniciales estimados: 20.28/20.40.
--------------------------
Good morning.
Global interest rate hikes expectations are driving markets crazy, as Central Banks
may tighten monetary policy faster than expected. Chinese President Xi Jinping
cautioned that a rapid rise in interest rates could derail the global recovery.
Asia-Pacific stock markets closed mostly lower this Tuesday, erasing earlier gains
and the positive momentum they were having. South Korean Kospi declined -
0.89% followed by Hong Kong’s Hang Seng which slipped -0.43%, Chinese
mainland shares bucked the broad downtrend as the Shanghai composite rose
0.8% and the Shenzhen component ended up 0.19%.
The Bank of Japan left rates unchanged, in line with market expectations, and
reiterated that they will purchase a necessary amount of Japanese government
bonds.

European markets are negative by mid-day, with the German DAX down -0.88%
so far.
The ZEW economic sentiment survey in Germany came in well above
expectations, 51.7 in January, beating the 29.9 from December. However, the
current situation survey came in -10.2, lower than the -7.4 residing in December.
The Economic and Financial Affairs Council will gather today in Brussels trying to
set fiscal rules for companies.
Wall Street is expecting a negative opening after yesterday’s holiday. Dow is -315
points, while Nasdaq is -245 points.
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in -0.7, far from the 25.7 expected and
the first time to fall into negative territory since June 2020.
Markets will be looking for corporate earnings from some of the most important
financial institutions in the US later on the day.
Oil is $84.90 USD per barrel, Gold is $1,812.80 USD per ounce, the British Pound
is 1.3585, the Euro is 1.1365 and the Peso is 20.37.
Have a good day and stay safe!.