La producción industrial: un respiro para la actividad manufacturera en agosto

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Lorena Domínguez, Economista Senior de HSBC México

- En agosto, la producción industrial creció 0.2% frente a julio, con cifras ajustadas por estacionalidad. La actividad manufacturera y la producción de energía eléctrica incrementaron 1% frente a julio, mientras que la minería y la construcción cayeron 0.3% y 0.6%, respectivamente. En términos anuales, la producción industrial  creció 1%.

- La actividad manufacturera incrementó después de 3 meses mostrando resultados menores a lo esperado; confiamos que siga creciendo moderadamente, apoyada por la depreciación del peso.

- La construcción cayó después de dos meses consecutivos de crecimiento, lo que refleja que el sector continúa luchando por crecer.

- La recuperación en el sector de la construcción ha sido liderada por la edificación, que mantiene una tendencia moderada al alza. Por el contrario, los proyectos de ingeniería civil registraron una baja por segundo mes consecutivo.

- La expectativa es que la producción industrial crezca 1.6% en 2015.

Mexico

Industrial production: A respite for manufacturing in August

August's industrial production increased modestly for the third month in a row. This month's rise was led by the sharp expansion in manufacturing activity, after registering three months of weak results. Construction dropped after two consecutive months increasing, suggesting that the sector continues to struggle to grow. Edification continues to lead the soft recovery in the sector, as civil engineering remains stagnant. Finally, mining maintains a downward trend on the back of lower oil production. All in all, we expect industrial production to remain weak for the remainder of the year, growing 1.6% in 2015.

Facts

In August, industrial production increased 0.2% with respect to July in seasonally adjusted terms. This result came above our estimate and in line with consensus expectations (HSBC: -0.5%; Consensus: 0.2%). This month's reading shows mixed results in the components. Both manufacturing and utilities increased 1.0% m-o-m, while mining and construction dropped 0.3% and 0.6% m-o-m.

On a y-o-y basis, industrial production increased 1.0%. This result came above our projection and in line with consensus expectations (HSBC: 0.5%; Consensus: 1.0%). This month's reading shows that manufacturing, construction and utilities increased 3.1%, 2.1% and 4.5% y-o-y, respectively. In contrast, mining dropped 5.8% y-o-y on the back of lower oil production.

Industrial production by type

Source: INEGI

Implications

In August, industrial production increased modestly for the third month in a row in seasonally adjusted terms. This month's rise was led by the expansion in manufacturing, which had registered three months of weak results. The most dynamic components this month were the fabrication of transportation equipment, textiles, primary metals, apparel and printed materials. Our view is that manufacturing activity will continue to grow moderately, supported by the weaker MXN; though some industries, such as iron and chemical products will continue to show weak results.

Construction fell after two consecutive months increasing, which reflects that the sector continues to struggle to grow. The soft recovery in the sector has been led by edification which maintains a modest upward trend On the contrary, civil engineering works dropped for the second month in a row and the trend remains stagnant. The results shown for this type of construction may derive from the negative impact of public spending cuts. In this regard, the government is seeking to reallocate some of these projects to the private sector.

Finally, mining continues to drop on the back of the decline in oil production to an average of 2.2 million barrels per day this year.

All in all, we believe that industrial production will remain weak for the remainder of the year, growing 1.6% in 2015.

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